US Prediction Markets
US prediction markets: 3 options and a restricted alternative
Polymarket US, Foregate, Underdog and Onyx compared on market structure, minimum funding, state availability and regulatory clarity.
Adele Moreau, Markets Editor · 8 October 2026 · 12 min read
Polymarket US has the clearest exchange-level regulatory disclosure in this shortlist because QCX LLC operates it as a CFTC-registered designated contract market. Underdog publishes product-specific state eligibility, while Onyx requires prediction-account confirmation. ForeGate is not a US trading option under its published terms.
Quick comparison
| Rank | Operator | Best for | Key offer or feature | Status | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Polymarket US | Regulatory clarity | Exchange-style event contracts and published market rules | QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US is a CFTC-registered DCM | Read review |
| #2 | Underdog | Sports-focused documentation | Operator publishes a Prediction Picks state list | 18+ and physical presence in an eligible state | Read review |
| #3 | Foregate | Restricted alternative | Published terms prohibit US, UK and Ontario trading | Not a US trading recommendation | Read review |
| #4 | Onyx | Product research | Separate prediction brokerage disclosures | Confirm prediction-specific rollout and eligibility | Read review |
#1 · Best for regulatory clarity
Polymarket US
- Regulator
- CFTC; QCX LLC designated contract market
- Minimum funding
- Confirm in the current account
- Settlement
- Market-specific published rules
- Currency
- USD market access
Polymarket US ranks first because the exchange structure is documented through CFTC filings. A yes contract priced at $0.63 implies a market view near 63% before fees, but the displayed probability is not a guarantee and thin order books can produce a meaningful spread.
Read the resolution source and cutoff time before trading. The most important UX detail is not the chart: it is whether the contract language describes exactly what settles the market and how corrections are handled.
Pros
- + CFTC-designated contract market disclosure
- + Exchange prices expose current bids and offers
- + Public product and rule filings
Cons
- − Liquidity can vary sharply by market
- − State and contract availability can change
#2 · Best for sports-focused documentation
Underdog
- Regulatory position
- Verify current product classification and state eligibility
- Minimum funding
- Not independently verified
- Availability
- See the current Prediction Picks state list
- KYC
- Identity and location checks apply
Underdog is the practical quick pick for readers who prioritise a familiar consumer app and broad stated coverage. That does not mean every contract is available everywhere: product menus and legal treatment can change independently of account access.
The key comparison is price after spread or fees. Check both sides of the contract and the settlement rule instead of treating the displayed percentage as a house quote.
Pros
- + Dedicated product documentation
- + Broad operator-stated availability
- + Simple fit for mobile-first users
Cons
- − Product availability may vary by state
- − Regulatory status must be checked for the specific product
#3 · Not available for US trading
Foregate
- Regulatory position
- Verify the exact entity serving your jurisdiction
- Minimum funding
- Not independently verified
- Availability
- US, UK and Ontario trading prohibited
- KYC
- Jurisdiction and identity checks expected
ForeGate’s published terms prohibit trading from the US, UK and Ontario. We include it here to explain why a broad affiliate country list must not be interpreted as legal eligibility. It is not a US recommendation.
Before funding, identify the contracting entity, fee schedule and dispute route shown in the account terms. A country appearing in a marketing list is not equivalent to a CFTC designation.
Pros
- + Creator-market concept
- + Published product documentation
Cons
- − US trading prohibited in the published terms
- − Fee and settlement terms are market-specific
#4 · Prediction brokerage research
Onyx
- Regulatory position
- Verify before funding
- Minimum funding
- Not independently verified
- Availability
- Prediction-specific eligibility must be confirmed
Onyx identifies a prediction introducing broker and account carrier, but its social sweepstakes product is separate. Social gaming state lists and bonus picks do not establish prediction-account availability or promotions.
Its research angle is the distinction between the brand’s products. We have not verified prediction-specific fees or liquidity. Compare the actual contract spread, fee schedule and withdrawal route inside the live product.
Pros
- + Named prediction brokerage entity
- + Account carrier disclosed
Cons
- − Not listed for every state
- − No liquidity claim without live order-book evidence
US legal landscape: event contracts are not one category
The CFTC explains that event contracts are typically structured as swaps and that regulated prediction markets can operate as designated contract markets. A DCM is a federally regulated derivatives venue, not a state sportsbook licence.
Do not transfer one platform’s regulatory status to another. Check the legal entity, CFTC registration where claimed, state restrictions, contract rules and complaint route for the specific venue you plan to use.
Fees, liquidity and KYC
A one-cent fee on a $0.50 contract is a 2% cost before spread. Thin liquidity adds another hidden cost when the best available order is several cents from the displayed last price.
Expect identity checks and, where applicable, location verification. A platform that allows browsing without KYC may still require documents before funding or withdrawal. Complete verification before committing time-sensitive capital.
US tax treatment
Prediction-market tax treatment can depend on the contract, venue and taxpayer circumstances. Do not assume that event-contract proceeds receive the same reporting treatment as sportsbook winnings. Keep trade confirmations, deposits, withdrawals and fee records, and obtain advice from a qualified US tax professional.
Frequently asked questions
Are prediction markets legal in every US state?
There is no single answer for every venue and contract. Federally regulated event exchanges and other prediction products follow different frameworks, and state or contract restrictions can still affect access.
Which US prediction platform has the clearest regulatory status here?
Polymarket US has the clearest exchange-level disclosure in this shortlist because official CFTC filings identify QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US as a designated contract market.
Do prediction-market profits have to be reported for tax?
Potentially, yes, but treatment can vary by product and taxpayer. Keep complete records and seek qualified tax advice rather than assuming sportsbook or capital-gains treatment.
Sources and verification
Play Radar is funded by affiliate commission from some operators we list. Our analysts set ratings independently using the review methodology.