Are prediction markets legal in the US?

Eligibility depends on the venue, contract and jurisdiction. Federal registration does not establish access to every product in every state. Check the operator’s current account and physical-location requirements.

How do share prices translate into probabilities?

Each contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99. If a 'Yes' contract trades at $0.65, the market prices that event at a 65% implied probability. If the event happens, each contract pays out $1.00.

Can I trade out of a position early?

Some products allow an early sale, subject to trading hours, available counterparties, fees and market rules. You may be unable to exit at your preferred price.

How are winnings taxed?

Treatment depends on the contract, venue and taxpayer circumstances. Keep complete trade and fee records and consult a qualified tax professional.

2026 Prediction Hub

Top event contracts and prediction markets in the US and Canada

Trade on real-world outcomes: politics, sports, economics and pop culture. Compare the leading event contract platforms, fee structures and legal statuses.

Editorial comparison only. Play Radar may earn a commission when affiliate partnerships go live. Last reviewed 8 October 2026.

5: Public-source platform reviews
Fees: Check the complete cost of each order
6 Oct: Reviews researched in 2026

Featured platforms

Current prediction-market offers

Ranked on regulation, liquidity and total cost of trading. Editorial links only until partner offers are connected.

Offer terms, eligibility and promotional values are provided or published by the advertiser and may change without notice. Verify the current offer and location rules with the operator before registering. Play Radar may earn commission from certain links. How our links work.

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Guide

Prediction markets vs traditional sportsbooks

Event contracts price probability through an order book. Sportsbooks sell you a fixed price with a margin baked in. That single difference changes fees, market range and how you exit a position.

Comparison of prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks
Feature	Prediction markets (event contracts)	Traditional sportsbooks
How odds work	Dynamic pricing driven by peer-to-peer liquidity ($0.01 to $0.99 contracts)	Bookmaker sets the line and takes a house cut (vig or juice)
Types of markets	Politics, economics, Fed rates, box office, weather, sports	Purely athletic events and standard prop bets
Exit strategy	An early sale may be possible when trading is open and a counterparty is available	Most bets must ride until the final outcome
Regulation type	Regulated by the CFTC for US exchange platforms	State gaming boards and casino commissions

How odds work

Prediction markets

Dynamic pricing driven by peer-to-peer liquidity ($0.01 to $0.99 contracts)

Sportsbooks

Bookmaker sets the line and takes a house cut (vig or juice)

Types of markets

Prediction markets

Politics, economics, Fed rates, box office, weather, sports

Sportsbooks

Purely athletic events and standard prop bets

Exit strategy

Prediction markets

An early sale may be possible when trading is open and a counterparty is available

Sportsbooks

Most bets must ride until the final outcome

Regulation type

Prediction markets

Regulated by the CFTC for US exchange platforms

Sportsbooks

State gaming boards and casino commissions

Comparing the sportsbook side too? See our sportsbook rankings or read how we rate every platform.

Questions

Prediction market FAQ

The legality, pricing and tax questions readers ask us most about event contracts.

Explore our in-depth reviews

Public-source research, platform screenshots and product-specific restrictions. Inclusion does not establish availability in your location.

Polymarket reviewBest fit: readers comparing US event contracts Pred.app reviewBest fit: experienced sports-exchange readers Underdog reviewBest fit: sports fans comparing Prediction Picks Onyx reviewBest fit: researching a developing prediction offering ForeGate reviewUS, UK and Ontario trading prohibited by published terms.

Disclaimer: Prediction market trading involves risk. Content on this page is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice. Ensure you comply with local regulations before participating. 18+ only, 21+ in the US.